A hotter time for Northeast Ohio?
Climate models are more accurate predicting large-scale, global trends than changes for a particular place. Nevertheless, here are some of the predictions for Ohio and Lake Erie. While it's tempting to paint a rosy scenario of a warmer Cleveland as a beach vacation hotspot, many of the potential changes from global warming are quite troubling.
- Hotter and drier: By 2095, Ohio could have the climate of present-day Arkansas. We could have more extreme heat and droughts, as well as more extreme thunderstorms. The storms could cause more flooding.
- Shrinking Lake Erie: Less winter ice and greater evaporation could cause lake levels to drop nearly three feet by 2090. The receding water line could create opportunities to restore wetland habitats along the shore, but it also could spur additional waterfront development on newly exposed lakebed. Less water volume would mean less dilution for pollution, so water quality could be much worse. More intense storms could produce increased stormwater runoff pollution. Warmer water could favor fish species like smallmouth bass over cool-water species like walleye. Longer summers could lengthen the duration of temperature stratification of the lake, worsening the "dead zone" of oxygen-depleted water. There also could be additional shipping costs, as boats have to reduce their draft and more dredging is required.
- Heat and disease: The increased number of intensely hot days could cause more heat-related deaths (but there will be fewer cold weather deaths). There could be more smog, as heat and sunlight produce more ground-level ozone. Insect-borne diseases could become a more serious problem.
- Agriculture: Some crops might grow faster in a warmer, carbon dioxide-rich environment. But farmers could have to deal with more air pollution (which can damage sensitive crops), intense storms, and more droughts. Insect pests may proliferate under warmer conditions. And livestock may suffer in the heat.
Resources
- Confronting climate change in the Great Lakes region by the Union of Concerned Scientists and the Ecological Society of America
- U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change: Great Lakes region
- Costs of Climate Change in Ohio by the National Conference of State Legislatures and the Center for Integrative Environmental Research
- The Nature Conservancy in Ohio statement on the challenges of a warming Ohio
- A clear and present danger: The view from Holden Arboretum
- Health impacts of climate change
Ohioans will feel the effects of global warming through changes in our weather, our economy and in the plant and animal diversity that makes Ohio an attractive place to live and work. It is clear that change is coming. Each of us must decide how it should be managed, and how much of it can be slowed.
— Denise Franz King, The Nature Conservancy, Ohio Chapter

